Goalie Patrick Boivin, making a save here against Iroquois Falls Storm forward Patrice Lafontaine during a game at the McIntyre Arena on March 8, led the Timmins Rock to an NOJHL championship and strong Centennial Cup showing last season and he will be looking to duplicate that accomplishment when the puck drops on the East Division semifinals at the McIntyre Arena on Friday, at 7:30 p.m. THOMAS PERRY/THE DAILY PRESS jpg, TD, apsmc
Thomas Perry
The Daily Press/Postmedia Network
On the surface, it appears the NOJHL’s East Division champion Timmins Rock should sweep the fourth-place Iroquois Falls Storm when the puck drops on their semifinal series on Friday.
After all, the Rock (41-15-2-0) finished 49 points ahead of the Storm (16-39-0-3) this season. Then, there’s the fact the Rock swept all 10 meetings — with the Storm accumulating just one point, the result of a 6-5 shootout loss on home ice on Jan. 26. In those 10 head-to-head games, the Rock outscored the Storm 64-26.
Let’s dive a little bit deeper into the statistics to see if the Rock should be such a heavy favourite.
Special teams tend to play an even more important role in playoff hockey than regular-season encounters.
During the regular season, the Rock boasted the No. 1 power play in the NOJHL — operating at an efficiency of 32.7 per cent, six per cent better than the West Division’s Espanola Paper Kings. Meanwhile, the Storm had an efficiency rating of 18.7 per cent.
If the Rock had an Achilles Heel during the regular season it was the penalty kill. They ranked just 10th in the 12-team NOJHL, with an efficiency rating of 72.6 per cent, a statistic that certainly wasn’t helped by the six power-play goals they surrendered to the Soo Thunderbirds in their second-last regular-season game Friday night.
Meanwhile, the Storm had the seventh-best penalty kill in the NOJHL, with an efficiency rating of 75.4 per cent.
On the other side of the special teams’ puck, the Rock surrendered just two shorthanded goals, lowest in the NOJHL, while they accumulated nine shorthanded markers, sixth best in the league.
The Storm were not far behind the Rock in terms of shorthanded goals allowed, five, 10th best in the NOJHL, while the 11 they scored while killing a penalty tied their for third best in the league with the Greater Sudbury Cubs and the Soo Eagles.
So, like any playoff series, one of the keys will be staying out of the penalty box, something the Rock (667 minutes, ninth most in the NOJHL) did better than the Storm (799 minutes, fourth most in the league) during the 2023-24 campaign.
Penalty kill aside, the special teams advantage clearly goes to the Rock.
During the regular season, the Rock allowed 177 goals, fourth fewest in the NOJHL, while the Storm gave up 273, ninth best in the league.
Patrick Boivin (1,920:00, 20-11-1-0, 1, 3.38, .897), who led the Rock to an NOJHL championship and impressive Centennial Cup run last season, teamed up with 16-year-old rookie sensation Dryden Riley (1,574:00, 21-4-1-0, 2, 2.55, .913) to give the Rock solid goaltending in the regular season.
The Storm will counter with the duo of Connor Hatfield (1,726:00, 10-12-1-3, 3, 3.96, .902) and Brodie Haylock (1,082:00, 5-14-0-1, 1, 4.66, .883). It should be noted, however, that Hatfield’s stat line is somewhat misleading, as he started the season with the West Division’s Soo Thunderbirds. His numbers with the Storm (1,357:00, 6-12-0-2, 1, 4.42, .898) are a little more in line with Haylock’s stats.
So, defensively the Rock have a clear advantage over the Storm and most other potential playoff opponents beyond the opening round.
Offensively, the Rock scored 272 goals on the season, third most in the NOJHL, compared to the 157 markers recorded by the Storm, 10th best in the league.
Two members of the Rock, linemates Harry Clark (56, 36-65-101, 38), fourth, and Mason Svarich (44, 40-35-75, 6), seventh, finished in the Top 10 in the NOJHL scoring race, while no member of the Storm made it into the Top 50 marksmen.
The Rock produced one 40-goal scorer, Svarich (40), two skaters who hit or surpassed the 30-goal standard, Clark (36) and Liam Wells (30), and two others who broke the 20-goal barrier, 16-year-old Brant Romaniuk (23) Kaeden McArthur (22).
And another five Rock skaters, Lucas Lowe (17), Thomas Beard (16), Nolan Ring (15), Hayden Rynard (13) and Jack Anderson (10), who hit double figures on the season.
By comparison, the Storm didn’t produce any 40-goal scorers, or 30 goal scorers or even 20-goal scorers.
Andre Cho (19) and Lucas Peever (18) did come close to the latter standard and Timmins product Patrice Lafontaine (16), Ben Sherwin (15), Max Jugnauth (13) and Michael Leech (10) all managed to hit double figures on the season.
Again, offensively the Rock appear to have a distinct advantage on the Storm when it comes to putting the puck in the net.
Of course, when it comes to playoff hockey, anything can happen, especially if the injury bug that plagued the Rock throughout much of the regular season persists.
Still, our crystal ball clearly indicates the Rock will sweep this best-of-seven series 4-0, paving the way for an East Division final showdown against either the Hearst Lumberjacks or the Powassan Voodoos.
